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Production manages to grow by another 1mn bpd in 2019, then a more severe supply deficit will possibly or likely only emerge in 2020.However, what is perhaps notable is that many of the existing OPEC members are currently still producing at near record levels not dissimilar to the production levels reported in 2015 and 2016, and before the imposition of the so called production cuts. In fact, based on the data reported by the IEA, production in 2017 (a full year of production restraint by OPEC) was higher than in 2015, during the infamous 'market share' war. In reality, it is only Saudi Arabia and other Arab Persian Gulf states such as the UAE and Kuwait that have implemented meaningful production cuts, and even in this case, production in 2017 was generally higher than the average production reported in 2014.Source: IEA, Oil Market ReportSo the assumption that OPEC can immediately ramp up production by 1mn bpd in a short space of time is probably flawed.

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